By Craig Andresen – The National Patriot and Right Side Patriots on cprworldwidemedia.net
Considering the situation in Syria right now, as Russia continues to bomb ISIS command and control locations, such as they are, by bombing those who Obama has been arming, there seems to be a rather pressing question on the minds of those who are watching the escalation closely…
Will Putin launch a tactical nuclear strike against ISIS in response to the claims BY ISIS that they were responsible for shooting down a Russian passenger jet killing all 224 on board?
First, we need to examine what we know regarding the cause of the crash and right now, the reports are all over the board. ISIS claims that they brought it down and even released a video purportedly showing the Russian plane as a fireball in the sky. Egypt says ISIS didn’t do it and says there is no proof that the plane broke apart in the air. The Pentagon claims they know as FACT that ISIS didn’t bring down the Russian airliner with either a missile or anti-aircraft fire but that there WAS an explosion, picked up by satellite intel and that terrorism could not be ruled out.
Russia is heavily leaning toward the ISIS claim however, not even they seem quite ready to specify the exact means by which it was done.
To be clear…
ISIS, as far as we know, doesn’t have the weapons to SHOOT down a plane at the 31,000 feet in altitude THIS particular plane was at when it exploded but let’s also be clear…Obama has been arming ISIS both abjectly and covertly for some time and let’s not forget that many, MANY weapons we left in Iraq are now in the possession OF ISIS and what all of those weapons are we simply do not know.
IF, and it still is if, that Russian passenger plane was SHOT down…it would almost have to be that it was a U.S. MADE weapon that did it, and that possibility, for now, cannot be dismissed nor can it be dismissed that ISIS either planted or had someone carry a bomb ONTO that plane ala Lockerbie…which seems a more likely scenario.
The fact is, at this point, Putin HAS moved many of his deployed tactical nukes closer to the region and he’s been meeting with his allies, including Syria, over the past few days while issuing warnings to all his allies in the region to evacuate all allied civilians.
Those meetings, by the way, were held in Tehran and that too is significant though not for the reasons one might think.
We all know that Russia and Iran are allies but Iran, an Islamist regime in and of itself, wants ISIS gone…not so much because they disagree with the ideology OF ISIS but because Iran wants to eventually lay claim to the growing caliphate and to rule over it. Iran’s Islamist regime sees ISIS as their primary opposition in that endeavor and so, they want ISIS gone.
Russia also, over the past couple of days, held a behind closed doors meeting with NATO in order to reassure that organization that they have no designs whatsoever on launching any tactical nukes against either Georgia or the Ukraine so as not to invite retaliatory strikes FROM NATO in response.
Putin’s goals, with regard to his involvement in Syria, ARE clear…to become the region’s go-to nation when trouble looms by doing what Obama refuses to do…defeat ISIS. Putin wants to be the power and the influence peddler in the Middle East, not only to expand his and Russia’s sphere of influence but also to take that sphere of influence away from the United States. Both Putin and the more moderate Arab nations see Obama for exactly what he is…weak, ineffective and allied with ISIS.
Via the Obama doctrine, the creation of vacuums of power to be filled BY Islamists across the Middle East and North Africa, Obama has opened the door to anyone who WISHES TO challenge the barbarians of ISIS and Putin is more than ready, willing AND able to be Obama’s Huckleberry.
Adding to Obama’s weakness in the region is his and his regime’s continued lying regarding what’s really going on over there. Over the weekend, the Obama regime tried to claim that Russia’s moving and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons could result in a nuclear arms race in the Middle East while anyone with a working brain cell knows it was Obama’s “deal” with Iran that actually started that arms race…not Putin’s latest move.
That said…the question remains…in response to the downing of a Russian airliner, will Putin launch a tactical nuclear strike against ISIS?
While that IS the question most are asking, I propose it is the wrong question altogether. The RIGHT question SHOULD be…
Is there any reason to think Putin WON’T launch a tactical nuclear strike against ISIS?
Putin needs a big score and he needs a decisive score. Something to make the rest of the players in the region really sit up and take notice. I’m talking about the more moderate Arab states…those who once respected US while our, and their enemies FEARED us. If Putin can make them believe he means business, and I mean MAJOR business, by launching the sort of attacks against ISIS that are retaliatory AND offensive in nature, and doing so in a clearly decisive and way that not only gets ISIS’; attention but the attention of the entire world…Putin stands a good chance of speeding up his timeline toward becoming THE single largest peddler of influence…not only in that region but on the world stage.
It’s an enormous gamble but Putin IS a gambling man and as such, he is not prone to bluffing. He said he would bomb ISIS in Syria and he’s doing exactly that. He said he would stand against Obama’s agenda in Syria and he’s doing exactly that. Vladmir Putin said he would destroy ISIS and, to be quite frank about it, tactical nuclear strikes would go a long ways toward meeting that objective as well but…if Putin moves his arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons into position and then doesn’t pull the trigger…those moderate Arab states will not trust him to take action in the future.
The ramifications of a tactical nuclear strike against ISIS, in ANY location would be beyond enormous as not only would Putin be sending an unmistakable message to the entire world, that he is willing to take THE most drastic action when confronted by Islamic terrorism, but he would also be pitting his desire to rebuild the Russian Empire against both the United States and the U.N. as well. Does Putin really give a damn either way? Most likely not as he sees Obama as little more than a weak, ineffectual waste of time and space at best and as an Islamist enemy at worst. As for Putin’s view of the U.N., he feels above them as was demonstrated by his lecturing of the General Assembly a month or so ago.
Make no mistake, Putin’s meetings with NATO and the moderate Arab nations is two-fold. First, he’s warning them of what’s to come and second, he’s shoring up support as in securing agreements that should He take this bold and decisive action, they will not join in U.N. sanctions against him. Obviously, Putin wants to keep Arab oil flowing into his Empire and if he can rid those moderate Arab nations of the ilk of ISIS…his enemy and theirs, they will, most likely, stand with him and that even further expands his sphere of influence in the area.
The next logical question is…IF Putin launches tactical nukes…WHERE is the target located and the most likely answer is…Syria…as that is where Putin is centering his war against ISIS but in trying to keep Assad in power, WOULD he target a strike in Syria?
I believe that is precisely why Putin has met with Assad’s government…to warn them more than to seek their permission and there can be little doubt that Assad himself sees this is a tangible way, albeit with substantial collateral costs, to not only stop ISIS from their planned overthrow of him but also to quell thoughts of any FUTURE uprisings against him. Assad, let’s be honest, has never been squeamish at the idea of killing his own people to maintain power and he knows, at this point, he can’t hold the hard-line all by himself.
Also, regarding the size of targeted, small tactical nuclear weapons, and given terrain and atmospheric conditions…a 100kt tactical nuke’s fallout, detonated in central Syria, would most likely be contained TO Syria as seen by the red box in the image and that too plays into this equation in Putin’s favor.
All of this begs one final yet very important question…can ISIS, given that they do not rely on industrial centers to supply their war machine and have no real central command and control set facilities, be defeated by tactical nuclear weapons?
ISIS, like all terrorist groups, has an Achilles heel…terror…and when civilians, even those who side WITH ISIS see that ISIS is no longer the greatest threat to their lives…they will start singing like birds. Intel, from the ground, provided by civilians will come in tsunami sized waves and when Putin protects those who provide such valuable information, unlike Obama, that gate swings wide open.
Obama has used and abused our covert sources of intel and left those who have provided assistance to the wolves. Putin will not make that mistake and that will not only be the undoing of ISIS but it WILL make Putin, and the NEW Russian Empire into THE power-broker in the region…no doubt about it.
Whether or not ISIS had anything to do with the downing of that Russian airliner…they got Russia’s attention by CLAIMING they did. Vladmir Putin is playing a very dangerous game but he, unlike Obama, is playing to win and he’s not going to let an unsportsmanlike conduct flag, for using any weapons he so chooses, stop him.