By Craig Andresen on April 14, 2011
Donald Trump has made a lot of noise over the last couple of weeks regarding the birth certificate issue which has propelled him to the top of many polls of possible GOP contenders. As I have said before, Trump is unelectable as his background, numerous bankruptcy filings, marriages and business dealings would preclude him as a serious candidate.
There is also his history of donations to democrat candidates in the past including his donation to Rahm Emanuel’s mayoral bid in Chicago. Add to that, Trump’s past advocacy of Obama and frankly, no matter WHAT he brings to show and tell in his investigation of Obama’s past, at best, Trump is a RINO and the conservatives will have little to do with him in the long run.
Now, Trump has begun to morph. Not into a more conservative possible candidate but into Ross Perot.
What we have here, as I have said before, is a man who gets what he wants and has at his disposal the means by which to do it. A couple of good questions to ask at this point would be…what is it exactly that he wants and where exactly does he stand?
While most republicans quietly or outwardly hope he finds SOMETHING to help bring down Obama…is he really a republican? Is he just a publicity hound? Could there possibly be an unsettling motive behind all his bluster?
While some may consider it conspiracy theory, I believe there IS reason to call his motives into question based on his own recent statement.
It appears, by his own statements, what he wants is 4 more years of Obama’s socialism.
To accomplish this, Trump is attempting to blackmail, for lack of a better term, the GOP into handing him the nomination. Trump has let it be know that if he DOESN’T get the nomination of the GOP…he might just run as an independent, a move that would have the same effect as Perot did when HE split the vote. Trump as an independent candidate would nearly ensure an Obama victory in 2012.
In the current political climate, neither democrats nor republicans can win a presidential election on their own. The swing votes come from independents and whichever way they lean, so goes the victory. Independents are independents for one of two reasons. Either they are fed up with both parties or they lack the conviction to be attached to one party or the other and therefore, their voting records are fickle.
If suspicions of Trump really wanting to aid Obama’s reelection are true the question is; Can Trump draw enough votes away from the GOP via independents to cause the election to lean to the left? Certainly it is possible. There will be independents who view other RINO candidates and well seasoned GOP possibilities as just more of the same old thing, been there done that sort of candidates for whom they will not vote. Those independents are also likely to shun Obama even if they voted for him in 2008 as polls indicate the Obama independent base is already drifting away.
There are also two camps of republican voters to be considered. There is the old guard who are more likely to initially get behind an establishment candidate early but will vote the party line no matter the eventual nominee and there are the Tea Party faithful who will get behind a bold new candidate early and eventually vote whoever wins the nomination.
This means the early caucus votes and early primaries may well be all over the board on the republican side. No doubt, this is weighing into Trump’s latest announcement, or threat, to run as an independent.
So…what to do with a loose cannon? As the ship pitches from port to starboard Trump now seems to be playing both sides against the middle. Investigate the issues and questions around Obama’s past and he tilts to starboard. Threaten to run as an independent and off he goes to port. So, what are the factors at play and can he be reigned in?
Trump the Gambler
Well, first there is the noise he’s making regarding the birth certificate and other issues in question surrounding Obama. Trump is smart enough to realize that at the end of the day, if he has nothing, it would be the political equivalent of standing in front of Al Capone’s empty vault. He has SOMETHING and he’s gambling that whatever it is, it’s enough to add credibility to his campaign and at the very least enough to garner consideration by independents. IF Trump has something on Obama’s past it is either not damaging enough to eliminate Obama or…if it is…the democrats will have to find a different candidate and remember, Hillary Clinton has already stated she will not serve in a second Obama administration.
Trump the Promoter
Regardless of the roller coaster of business successes and failures along with those in his personal life, the one thing Trump has ALWAYS done well is self promote and he loves the spotlight. One thing he is NOT known for is putting OTHERS front and center and therefore, Trump outwardly campaigning for Obama is not seen as productive. IF he truly wants an Obama reelection, the best way to do it would be to promote himself and draw independents not to OBAMA but to TRUMP. So, how does showing some aspect of a questionable Obama past work FOR Obama? Suppose the information was on the verge of coming to public light without Trump. Such a situation would only harm Obama and force independents to the right. Having Trump present it while he promotes HIMSELF helps divert the spotlight away from Obama but brings those independents who WOULD have leaned right TO an independent (unelectable) Trump.
Trump the Investor
IF any of this is true, what’s in it for Trump? He’s an investor. The last time he needed more exposure he created a reality TV show and let’s face it, that platform is getting tread bare. Trump needs a bigger stage. One must also remember the true power behind the oval office right now is NOT Obama but Soros and Trump wants a little of what Soros has…power. Again, IF this is indeed the game,Trump is investing his charisma and the return on that investment would be future power on a new world order stage.
Trump the Player
One would have to ask, does Trump really want to be the president? My guess is no. Why would he? It would mean putting his empire on hold for at least 4 years. As president, he would have to be banking on complete success in order to exit office and jump start the next chapter of that empire. Anything less would be a disaster both to his business holdings and his credibility. As a player in the game of business and in what he considers a game of politics he can win just by playing. See above.
Trump the Candidate
Short and sweet. In Trump’s world, it’s better in the grand scheme of things to be an independent candidate who loses the general election than to be a republican candidate who doesn’t even get the nomination.
Can the GOP Win?
While all of this supposition would lead one to a bleak conclusion for the GOP in the upcoming 2012 elections I believe all is NOT lost.
With enough possible candidates to fill the roster of a football team, the GOP MUST at some point bring forth a front runner. I do not at this time see in the top 10 a candidate that will meet the necessary criteria and primarily the criteria of securing the independent vote. I believe that the rank and file of the GOP will need to dragged into this strategy kicking and howling and therefore it will be up to young conservatives and the Tea Party faithful to push, shove, drag and insist that the right candidate be ultimately chosen.
Are you LISTENING on the right?
In my estimation, what is called for is patience. The smartest thing the GOP could do is wait it out while all the possibilities, including Trump whether or not he remains a GOP prospect, to get out there and provide interference. But…for whom? The GOP needs a candidate who, right now, is far enough OFF the radar as to NOT garner too much notice. They need a late entry who CAN sway the independent vote. A candidate who CAN solidify the party by bringing the old guard into the Tea Party. This candidate should NOT be a seasoned politician but it SHOULD be someone who has an understanding of how to right the domestic ship and how to rebuild our nation’s standing in world affairs.
This will require a candidate with unquestionable values, patriotism, knowledge of both the domestic issues and a firm grasp of international issues, someone who understands completely who our enemies are and who our friends are, someone who is not afraid to speak the truth and seeks the absolute best for our republic.
This candidate will have the wherewithal to prove that the message is more important that the money in an election and will be able to clearly state a platform that is above reproach and who has neither the desire or the need to use the word “politically” as a precursor to being correct.
Such a candidate could and would win the white house regardless of the Trump card.
Are YOU listening Allen West?